Preseason Rankings
North Texas
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#95
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.2#345
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 3.0% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 5.7% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 35.2% 19.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.3% 17.3% 5.6%
Average Seed 10.6 9.6 11.2
.500 or above 75.3% 88.8% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.7% 88.9% 79.4%
Conference Champion 22.8% 31.2% 20.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.5%
First Four2.4% 3.6% 2.1%
First Round22.2% 33.4% 18.5%
Second Round7.9% 14.5% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 4.9% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.7% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 36 - 39 - 9
Quad 46 - 114 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 46   @ Arkansas L 67-74 25%    
  Dec 04, 2020 72   @ Mississippi St. L 64-69 30%    
  Dec 17, 2020 339   Houston Baptist W 90-67 98%    
  Dec 19, 2020 30   @ LSU L 68-77 20%    
  Jan 01, 2021 131   UAB W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 02, 2021 131   UAB W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 08, 2021 153   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 09, 2021 153   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 15, 2021 161   UTEP W 70-61 77%    
  Jan 16, 2021 161   UTEP W 70-61 77%    
  Jan 22, 2021 118   @ Old Dominion L 64-65 47%    
  Jan 23, 2021 118   @ Old Dominion L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 28, 2021 265   @ Rice W 75-66 76%    
  Jan 30, 2021 265   Rice W 78-63 89%    
  Feb 05, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 06, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 12, 2021 229   @ Southern Miss W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 13, 2021 229   @ Southern Miss W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 19, 2021 82   Western Kentucky W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 20, 2021 82   Western Kentucky W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 25, 2021 110   @ Marshall L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 27, 2021 110   @ Marshall L 74-75 45%    
Projected Record 13 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 6.3 5.5 3.3 1.0 22.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.5 5.5 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.8 1.0 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.3 0.9 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.6 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.5 9.8 11.0 11.9 11.8 10.3 8.3 5.7 3.3 1.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.8% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-2 95.9% 5.5    4.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 75.5% 6.3    4.2 1.9 0.2
14-4 45.4% 4.7    2.0 2.1 0.5 0.1
13-5 14.3% 1.7    0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.8% 22.8 15.7 5.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 96.9% 59.6% 37.3% 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.2%
17-1 3.3% 87.5% 49.1% 38.5% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 75.5%
16-2 5.7% 75.8% 43.9% 31.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 56.8%
15-3 8.3% 55.2% 33.3% 21.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.7 32.8%
14-4 10.3% 37.0% 27.8% 9.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.5 12.7%
13-5 11.8% 24.6% 20.6% 4.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.9 5.1%
12-6 11.9% 15.6% 14.0% 1.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 10.1 1.8%
11-7 11.0% 9.3% 8.9% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.4%
10-8 9.8% 4.7% 4.6% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.3 0.1%
9-9 8.5% 4.2% 4.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2
8-10 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.4
7-11 4.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.6
6-12 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-13 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.5% 16.5% 7.0% 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.4 4.1 5.8 3.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 76.5 8.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 31.0 37.9 21.8 9.2